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20* graded play UNDER Reds-Rockies set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SBR Capper Jeff Grant has already posted his free baseball pick in favor of the Reds at -148, but I am going to take it a step further, as I believe that there is better value to be found.

Only Houston is having a more disappointing season than the Rockies. By many measures Colorado has become the second worst team in the National League having been outscored by their opponents by 86 runs. They are in last place in the NL West trailing the division leading Giants by a whopping 17 ½ games. 

The Cincinnati Reds have caught fire and have won nine of the past 10 games and eight straight to gain a two game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central. They are also tied with the Washington Nationals for the best record in the NL.

The Reds will send Johnny Cueto to the hill and he looks to continue his very impressive season performance. He ranks fourth in the NL with 12 wins, eighth with 133 ? innings pitched, best with a 2.23 ERA, and second with two complete games. 

He has tremendous command of three elite pitches beginning with his fastball that he throws 73% of the time for the first pitch of an at-bat and one that hitters are batting just .259 when seeing that fastball. He then has a tremendous changeup where batters are hitting just .197 and follows that up with a slider where batters are hitting just .218. 

Since he is a right-handed pitcher, he will feature the devastating change as his out pitch to right-handed batters. he throws that pitch 17% of the time to right-handed batters and just 3% to left-handed batters. So, he uses three pitches against left-handed batters and features the fastball and slider to right-handed batters. 

Moreover, he has been even more dominating over his last three starts sporting a 1.45 ERA with a 1.393 WHIP, allowing zero home runs, and striking out 17 batters spanning 18 ? innings of work. I strongly believe he will dominate the Rockies lineup that is batting just .226 over their last seven games.

Christian Friedrich will start for the Rockies and he is on a massive MLB learning curve that has seen him improve significantly over his recent starts. He has a strong fastball with significant movement that ranges between 86 and 95 MPH. The left-hander will then feature a slider to left-handed batters than he an thrown between 80 and 88 MPH. For right-handed hitters he can add a back-door curveball that he can throw at an average of 76 MPH. He has been able to get first pitch strikes more often in his recent starts and that will serve him well against the Reds.

Simulator Projections and Supporting System

The baseball betting simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 10 runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 127-69 for 65% winners since 1997. Play UNDER the posted total with all NL teams where the total is 10 or higher and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season and with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. 114 of these wagers went UNDER the posted total by two or more runs and this reinforces the simulator projections calling for a game in the range of eight or fewer runs.

Using my own personal betting method, I have come to the conclusion that bettors who add the UNDER to their MLB picks tonight will not be let down.