The Dallas Mavericks look to rebound after last night’s loss to the Miami Heat. The Mavericks will remain in the sunshine state tonight as have a date with Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic. Can the Mavs get it done tonight?
Free NBA pick on Orlando as they host the Dallas Mavericks in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I correctly identified Miami as a 5* winner in their blowout win over Dallas Thursday. Miami had lost two straight games in miserable fashion and were primed to get things right last night. Yet, Dallas showed weakness in several areas of the game and I am not convinced that they are playoff bound.
Dallas sits in the sixth playoff position of the Western Conferencebased on current standings, but lead eighth place Houston by just 1.5 games. Moreover, Denver is in ninth place with the same records as Utah and Houston and Phoenix just two games behind them in the 10th position. Even the Minnesota Timberwolves have the opportunity to make a playoff run trailing Houston by 2.5 games.
The Eastern Conference playoff picture is more clear with Chicago having already locked a playoff invitation and leading the standings with a 41-11 record. The Heat sit in second place trailing the Bulls by 3.5 games and have a safe five game lead over the third place Orlando Magic. The Knicks hold down the eighth playoff position and enjoy a 2.5 game lead over ninth place Milwaukee.
When the Mavericks have more turnovers and less rebounds than their opponents it makes the game very difficult to win. Such was the case in last night’s loss to the Heat, where they had three more turnovers and just 29 total rebounds to Miami’s 44. That combination is how a team can lose by 21 points.
Orlando has the same advantages tonight and having to play on back-to-back nights is only going to magnify these Magic advantages. The Magic rank fifth in the NBA averaging 52.6 boards per game, 10th averaging 31.8 defensive boards per game, and 11th getting an average of 11.0 offensive boards per game. By comparison, Dallas ranks 16th in the NBA averaging 50.7 rebounds per game, fourth getting 32.4 defensive boards per game, and 27th averaging just 10.1 offensive boards per game.
Dallas is a strong defensive rebounding team because they cannot afford to even attempt to get into fast paced style of games. Their number one focus is to limit opponent second chance scoring opportunities and this also skews their overall defensive rankings. Dallas simply does not have the depth to be a real playoff contender this year.
My NBA betting simulator shows a high probability that Orlando will win this game by six or more points. Dallas is projected to have a struggling night scoring points with the sim projecting a Mavericks total between 87 and 92 points. In past games, Dallas is 6-18 ATS in road games when they score 87 to 92 points in a game over the last three seasons. The Magic are a solid 152-78 ATS when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game since 1996.
Supporting my NBA picks is a system that has produced a record of 45-20 for 69% winners since 2006. Play on NBA odds favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more and is a solid team winning between 60% to 75% winners and playing a team with a winning record. Of the 65 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 28 of them or 42%, covered the spread by seven or more points.